4 Debate continues among the leading databases over what exactly should be counted as a relevant indicator of armed conflict, including whether to include nonviolent episodes or just events that produce fatalities. The first point is that despite some important recent advances in data collection-most notably in generating geo-referenced data-our collective knowledge about armed conflicts in Africa still rests upon weak foundations. The political context in which the current armed conflicts occur exhibits several notable characteristics. The conclusion reflects on the challenges these developments pose for orthodox approaches to peacemaking on the continent and the more militarized forms of peace operations deployed by both the UN and African Union (AU) involving elements of counterinsurgency, stabilization, and even counterterrorism. The final section highlights some of the more novel patterns since 2010, notably the rise in state-based armed conflicts growing levels of popular protests the increased significance of religious (especially Islamist) factors in state-based armed conflicts on the continent the likelihood of more intense livelihood struggles exacerbated by environmental change, especially among some nonstate actors and the growing use of remote forms of violence, especially IEDs and suicide bombings. The second section analyzes the key elements of continuity in armed conflicts in Africa, focusing on the importance of understanding repeat civil wars and other protracted forms of organized violence contested government transitions rooted in problems of democratic deficits and often minority rule continuing forms of interstate contestation and practices of mutual destabilization as well as the consistently high levels of nonstate armed conflicts, especially when compared to the rest of the world. It focuses on issues related to incomplete and contested data collection on this topic the important distinction between state-based and nonstate armed conflicts the complex array of often incoherent belligerents involved in armed conflicts in Africa trends in governance, notably backsliding on democratic reforms as well as more assertive peace operations deployed by the UN and regional organizations within Africa. The first section sets the scene by summarizing the political context in which organized violence is occurring. To address these issues the article proceeds in three parts. Although there are significant elements of continuity with earlier periods, policymakers and analysts alike need to understand and adapt to the ways in which the character of armed conflict on the continent has evolved if they are to develop effective responses. This article focuses on the major patterns in armed conflict in Africa since 2010. International efforts to respond to some of these developments by deploying more robust and militarized forms of peace operations and interventions have met with at best only limited success. Specifically, there have been significant reversals in the decline of state-based armed conflicts and deliberate campaigns of violence against civilians religious and environmental factors have played increasingly significant roles in a wide range of armed conflicts there has been a dramatic increase in the levels of popular protests across the continent as well as an exponential rise in the use of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks and suicide bombings. Since 2010, however, the continent has witnessed some disturbing upward conflict trends. 2 Nevertheless, between the early 1990s and the late 2000s, Africa underwent a period of significant progress in reducing the number and intensity of armed conflicts. ![]() 1 Explanations for this glut of armed conflicts in Africa remain the subject of debates. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), there have been an estimated 630 state-based and nonstate armed conflicts on the continent between 19. Since the end of the Cold War, Africa has experienced a disproportionately large number of armed conflicts.
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